Ben Jervey, writing in Good Magazine, describes the motivations of his fellow transcontinental Amtrak travelers:
I counted four types of passengers. There are thrifty ones looking to save a few bucks on plane tickets. There are those who are scared of flying, a group that has no doubt grown in recent years. There are the zealots—without exception, older men—who describe themselves with charming lack of inhibition as “rail junkies,” “railroad nuts,” “train buffs,” or, my personal favorite, “railfans.” The rest—indeed the majority—say they’re here for “the experience.”
Having embarked on a similar rail trek in the fall of 2006, I think Jervey is, more or less, on the money. Apart from the hard-core train enthusiasts most of my fellow passengers intensely disliked flying, wanted to experience train travel or both.
If you’re traveling coach, I suppose that Jervey has a point; train travel is cheaper than airline travel. But frankly, even the world’s longest flights top out at 19 hours. Compare that to a train journey designed to last more than 77 hours, even without the almost certain delays. In my experience this makes a costly sleeper car essential, negating any cost savings over air travel.
In chronicling his experience, Jervey pinpoints several of Amtrak’s biggest challenges. Outside of the northeastern United States, Amtrak must borrow the rail lines from freight companies, whose own schedules take precedent, which translates to major delays. And while the federal government manipulates policy, and lays out all manners of subsidies for aviation and highway transportation, Amtrak remains a poorly funded bastard-stepchild. In their dealings with the nationalized rail service, President Bush and his hopeful Republican successor, Senator McCain, both champion that tired right-wing polemic, privatization.
The more interesting subtext in this story, however, is in the sheer potential for Amtrak’s growth. Look, domestic train travel is clearly unpopular—it’s slow, inefficient and appeals, essentially, to the thrifty, phobics and afficianados.
But taking the train generates about half of the CO2 that air travel does[1]. Now a year or so ago that may have driven a few activists to the train, concerned about reducing their carbon footprints, but with rapidly rising gas prices, the demographic of being an activist surely has shifted. Consider this, from The Wall Street Journal:
A report to be released Monday by the Transportation Department shows that over the past seven months, Americans have reduced their driving by more than 40 billion miles. Because of high gasoline prices, they drove 3.7% fewer miles in May than they did a year earlier, the report says, more than double the 1.8% drop-off seen in April.
This report highlights exactly why $4 gasoline, while painful, may be a good thing. ANWR drilling and gas-tax holidays are ill conceived. As U.S. News & World Report explains, The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest estimate:
…says that [ANWR] production could range from 510,000 barrels to 1.45 million barrels per day.If Congress approved development in 2008, it would take 10 years for oil production to commence, EIA said. With production starting, then, in 2018, EIA said the most likely scenario is that oil would peak at 780,000 barrels per day in 2027 and decline to 710,000 barrels per day in 2030. Currently, the United States consumes about 20 million barrels of oil per day.
Pain at the pump is forcing us to rethink our habits. If gasoline remains expensive, people will be forced to make permanent lifestyle changes. And perhaps, rather than completely dismantle our anemic and outdated—yet energy efficient—rail system, the federal government will be forced to reshape its energy and transportation policies. As The Wall Street Journal notes, the shift in driving habits:
…furthers many U.S. policy goals, such as reducing oil consumption and curbing emissions. But, coupled with a rapid shift away from gas-guzzling vehicles, it also means consumers are paying less in federal fuel taxes, which go largely to help finance highway and mass-transit systems. As a result, many such projects may have to be pared down or eliminated.
On the other hand, even a short respite from higher fuel costs would, at least temporarily, erase the benefits of higher costs—namely, a new awareness of the impact of our choices.
Is it any coincidence that Ford is facing its worst quarterly loss ever, while Honda is showing record profit? For all of their efforts, like collusion with the EPA, American auto manufacturers are now realizing the impact of their short-sightedness.
While some predicted that the impact of $7 or more a gallon would lead to significant change, it’s almost astonishing how rapidly a much smaller price increase has changed behavior. And while poor and rural parts of the country are suffering disproportionately, the long-term impact of fuel costs will be felt by everyone.
To my mind, making gasoline temporarily cheaper or increasing domestic capacity ignores the fundamental issue. Much like low-entry adjustable rate mortgages, we've been conditioned to buy giant vehicles with hidden costs, which we ultimately cannot afford. Pushing the American family into the SUV, or even more generally into the automobile-dependent suburbs is simply not sustainable. And, because these same factors will likely decimate the airline industry, it would be nice to have a back-up plan when, you know, people can’t afford to fly or drive wherever the hell they want to.
The question now is whether we want a cantankerous old coot for president, who seemingly adheres to the Grover Norquist school of policy—divesting the government of all responsibility or authority, until it's small enough to “drown in a bathtub.” Or do we want a leader who:
…supports development of high-speed rail networks across the country. Providing passengers with safe high-speed rail will have significant environmental and metropolitan planning advantages and help diversify our nation’s transportation infrastructure. Our domestic rail freight capacity must also be strengthened because our demand for rail transportation has never been greater, leaving many key transportation hubs stretched to capacity. Obama is committed to renewing the federal government’s commitment to high speed rail so that our nation’s transportation infrastructure continues to support, and not hinder, our nation’s long-term economic growth.
As a final aside, domestic rail service unquestionably has a long way to go before we’re on par with Japanese or European service. Even with funding, it will probably not be a glamorous way to travel for a long time. But, if you’d like to see the possibilities in train travel, though certainly cost-prohibitive, take a look at GrandLuxe Rail Journeys. For those travelers looking for an experience it certainly seems more romantic than riding coach for a cross-continental journey.