The August 12th Freakonomics column in The New York Times asked a quorum of experts to predict the future of the suburbs.
Kunstler’s view is predictably, but somewhat convincingly, bleak:
…American suburbia requires an infinite supply of cheap energy in order to function and we have now entered a permanent global energy crisis that will change the whole equation of daily life. Having poured a half-century of our national wealth into a living arrangement with no future — and linked our very identity with it — we have provoked a powerful psychology of previous investment that will make it difficult for us to let go, change our behavior, and make other arrangements.
Though, living in New Jersey, I also found Thomas E. Antus’s tongue-in-cheek predictions both reasonable and chilling. Antus, the administrator of Freehold Township, describes the state's future:
In 40 years I could see living in the world’s largest city, a megalopolis, extending from New York City to Philadelphia and engulfing all of New Jersey. New Jersey could change the state motto to “The Overdevelopment State.” As we already have more cars per square mile than any other state, we could change the shape of the license plates from a rectangle to the outline of a car.
This reminded me of something that I read a few years ago, that New Jersey is on the verge of a “permanent rush hour” as the state becomes even more densely populated. I can’t help but think of George Lucas’s Coruscant, only without the cool flying cars or the even cooler lightsabers. Unfortunately, the character of the government seems about the same.
The difference between Antus’s gridlocked megalopolis and Kunstler’s ghettoized ruins is dependent, I think, on whether we have in fact reached peak oil capacity, and whether the cost of oil will, again, dramatically rise.
If oil prices stabilize or continue to dip, the recent shift to smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles might be set back. Demand for mass transit will slide and Antus’s prediction of “a traffic light on every single corner,” may yet materialize.
Whether you subscribe to Kunstler’s dystopia, or Antus’s, I think Matthew Yglesias has it exactly right:
Rising gas prices and various other considerations have prompted this increased round of speculation on whether the suburbanization of America will reverse, but the right answer needs to take into account the fact that what policy choices we make will have a strong impact on the course of the future.
I know which candidate’s transportation and energy policies I’m more inclined to trust. Hint: It’s not the guy eager for a land war with Russia.